Development and Validation of a High-Altitude Balloon Trajectory Forecasting System
Category: Research Poster
Author(s): Eric Rhoades, Conner Harte
Presenter(s): Eric Rhoades
Mentors(s): Chandrasekaran Venkatachalam
High-altitude balloons (HABs) provide a low-cost platform for the calibration and testing of space hardware, atmospheric measurement, and near-space experimentation. However, accurately predicting HAB trajectories remains challenging due to uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models and mission parameters. Reliable prediction tools are essential for payload recovery, launch planning, and mission design. This work presents a modular High-Altitude Balloon Software Development Kit (HAB-SDK) for trajectory simulation and mission planning. The HAB-SDK implements a three-degree-of-freedom flight dynamics model using the 1976 U.S. Standard Atmosphere as a thermodynamic baseline and wind fields from numerical weather prediction datasets such as the Global Forecast System and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh. Users define balloon, payload, and launch parameters directly, enabling exploration of design trade-offs such as payload mass, helium fill volume, ascent rate, and burst altitude. Parameter sweeps and Monte Carlo simulations evaluate sensitivity to environmental conditions and mission configuration. Preliminary comparisons with flight data reproduce ascent, descent, and landing behavior while highlighting wind model uncertainty in landing prediction. Future development will incorporate additional wind models, uncertainty propagation, and real-time telemetry to further improve prediction reliability and de-risk payload recovery.