Improving Coastal Marshland Modeling using CMEM and BERM Models
Category: Research Poster
Author(s): Cade Vanek
Presenter(s): Cade Vanek
Mentors(s): Alan Cai
Coastal wetlands are a vital buffer against sea level rise. Marshland grasses growing from the seabed act as a physical buffer, causing sediments in the water to settle on the seabed and slowly raise its elevation. However, if water levels rise too quickly, marsh grass growth can’t keep pace with the changes, and will drown. As climate change leads to rising ocean levels, forecasting how marshlands respond is crucial to predicting what a coastline will look like in the future. One tool used to forecast these changes is the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM), which incorporates a collection of data to predict how the marsh changes over time. One of these data points is belowground biomass, which is difficult to accurately measure over large areas and time periods. Belowground biomass holds the soil together, stabilizes the aboveground growth, and contributes to beneficial seabed rise. Because belowground biomass data are difficult to attain, we aim to assess how the CMEM model performs when belowground biomass data are predicted using the Belowground Ecosystem Resiliency Model (BERM). Data were compiled from a publicly accessible data catalog for an ecological research site in Georgia, USA. Preliminary results suggest that BERM-informed CMEM modeling produces more accurate results than traditional estimates.