Informing Tactical Periodization In Collegiate Football
Category: Research Poster
Author(s): Gabe Macklem
Presenter(s): Gabe Macklem
Mentors(s): Aaron Nielsen
In preparation for a competitive season, a team or individual may employ tactical periodization. This is the practice of manipulating training loads throughout a season, with the goal of being most prepared for games of most importance. While coaches often use athletes' physical conditions to inform training regimens, external factors remain less researched. In football, it may be common knowledge that traveling farther distances or facing a more talented team will reduces winning probability. In this study, a Game Difficulty Index (GDI) was created for use in College Football. Factors regarding travel distance, coaching experience, team talent, returning production, and past success were collected for the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Logistic regression was considered on the binary response of game outcome (Win/Loss). Four models were trained on the 2022 season and tested on the 2023 season. The final model selected achieved an accuracy of 72%, selected not only for its predictive performance but also use of interpretable factors. The factors of previous season success and team talent were determined to be the most influential. Additionally, odds ratios were analyzed throughout the course of the season to determine how each factor's influence changed over time. The final GDI model was subsequently retrained on all available data and implemented by the Nebraska Football team to inform tactical periodization strategy prior to the 2024 season.